The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is establishing an expert committee to determine whether Tropical Cyclone Freddy has set a new record as the longest-lasting tropical cyclone ever recorded. Freddy has been an active, named tropical cyclone for 34 days, traveling across the entire South Indian Ocean and covering over 8,000 kilometers. Its accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)—a measure of the energy released by a tropical cyclone—equals that of an average full North Atlantic hurricane season.
While the cyclone has caused significant socio-economic and humanitarian impacts, timely and accurate early warnings issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, coupled with coordinated disaster management efforts, have helped mitigate the loss of life. Initial unconfirmed reports indicate at least 190 deaths, highlighting the critical role of the WMO’s Early Warnings for All initiative.
Freddy made landfall in northern Mozambique, in the province of Zambezia, on March 11, as reported by Mozambique’s National Meteorological Hydrological Service (INAM). This marks the second time Freddy has made landfall in Mozambique, bringing destructive winds, storm surges, and extreme rainfall to the region.
The cyclone’s impact has been felt across a wide area, including northeast Zimbabwe, southeast Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. Rainfall totals in affected regions are forecast to reach 200–300 mm, with localized amounts of 400–500 mm, particularly in mountainous areas. This level of rainfall, occurring over just a few days, is more than double the monthly average and is expected to result in severe flooding.
Malawi is forecast to receive cumulative rainfall exceeding 300–400 mm within 48 hours, leading to widespread flooding and flash floods. The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services has urged residents to move to higher ground, adhere to evacuation orders, and avoid rivers. They have also warned of potential structural collapses, including houses, pit latrines, and power lines.
The ongoing rainfall will worsen flooding caused by Freddy’s earlier passage and by heavy seasonal rains, which have left rivers swollen and the ground saturated. Southern Mozambique has already experienced more than a year’s worth of rainfall in the past month, while Madagascar recorded three times its monthly average rainfall in just one week.
Freddy initially made landfall in Madagascar on February 21 and in southern Mozambique on February 24. It lingered over Mozambique and Zimbabwe for several days, bringing heavy rains and significant flooding. The storm then looped back into the Mozambique Channel, where it gained strength over the warm waters before heading toward Madagascar’s southwestern coast and back again to Mozambique.
Early Warnings for All
“Tropical Cyclone Freddy is having a profound socio-economic and humanitarian impact on affected communities. Accurate forecasts, early warnings, and coordinated disaster risk reduction efforts on the ground have significantly limited the death toll—though even one casualty is one too many,” said Dr. Johan Stander, WMO Services Director.
“This highlights the critical importance of the UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative, aimed at ensuring that everyone is protected within the next five years. WMO is fully committed to working with our partners to address extreme weather and climate-related risks—among the greatest challenges of our time,” he added.
Advance warnings from WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre La Réunion (Meteo-France), alongside national meteorological and hydrological services in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi, enabled disaster management and humanitarian organizations to act swiftly. Preparations included evacuations and the pre-positioning of food supplies to mitigate the storm’s impact.
According to a March 6 report from OCHA, Freddy’s death toll had reached at least 21 people, including 10 in Mozambique and 11 in Madagascar, with four deaths attributed to the storm’s latest rains. By March 13, the Malawi Red Cross Society reported 66 deaths, 93 injuries, and 16 people missing, as search and rescue operations continued.
Mozambique’s national disaster management agency, INGD, estimates that 1.75 million people have been affected by the cyclone, with over 8,000 displaced.
Potentially Record-Breaking Storm
Tropical Cyclone Freddy has been an extraordinary meteorological event. Named by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, a WMO regional center, on February 6, Freddy originated a few hundred kilometers off the northwest coast of Australia.
Freddy’s path across the entire Indian Ocean, from east to west, affected Mauritius and La Réunion before reaching Madagascar. This type of super zonal track is exceptionally rare, with the last recorded instances being Tropical Cyclones Leon-Eline and Hudah in 2000, both of which also occurred during a La Niña year.
The WMO is closely monitoring Freddy to determine if it has set a new record as the longest-lasting tropical cyclone. An investigation by the WMO Weather and Climate Extremes evaluation committee is expected to commence once the cyclone has fully dissipated.
“The WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive is assembling an international panel of scientists to analyze the raw data once Freddy’s lifecycle is complete,” explained Prof. Randall Cerveny, WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Rapporteur. “One key question will be whether Freddy’s periodic weakening below tropical storm status affects its qualification as the longest-duration tropical cyclone. These evaluations are rigorous scientific investigations and take time.”
Currently, the record for the longest-lasting tropical cyclone is held by Hurricane/Typhoon John, which lasted 31 days in 1994.
Freddy has already made history, according to NASA, by setting the record for the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of any storm in the southern hemisphere. ACE measures the total wind energy generated by a tropical cyclone over its lifetime.
The WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive tracks global records for temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and other extreme events.
“Record or not, Freddy is an exceptional phenomenon in the history of the South-West Indian Ocean,” said Sebastien Langlade, Head of Operations at RSMC La Réunion. “Its longevity, distance covered, maximum intensity, accumulated cyclone energy, and impacts on inhabited lands make it extraordinary. A comprehensive assessment will follow once the system completes its life cycle.”
Role of Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that East Southern Africa and Madagascar are experiencing and will likely continue to face increases in heavy rainfall and pluvial flooding. Projections also indicate a rise in the average wind speeds of tropical cyclones and the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms, which are the most intense.
On a global scale, rising mean sea levels will amplify the impacts of tropical cyclones, leading to higher extreme sea levels and worsening coastal hazards. These effects will be driven by an increase in the average intensity of storms, larger storm surges, and higher precipitation rates associated with tropical cyclones.
However, there remains low confidence regarding changes in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones at the global scale, reflecting uncertainties in how these events will evolve in the future.
